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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal developed with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress is expected to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“The plan involves five key agreements. Some of them concern binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to the press. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, including through operating inside its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these measures would serve as guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the type of package under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Russian government said it had not seen the details of the proposals on security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would not agree to troops from NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. A key demand involves Kyiv ceding the areas of the Donbas it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard units instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone might be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the plans are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” said the president, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he added.