Everyday Killings in the nation Decline 37% During Claudia Sheinbaum, Per Official Figures

The average count of daily homicides per month in the country has fallen by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to fresh administrative statistics. But, security experts have warned that murder numbers might not indicate better countrywide safety.

Significant Drop in Per-Day Figures

Officials reported an average of almost 55 homicides a day in the month of November as opposed to nearly 87 when the President assumed the presidency in September. This information was shared by the chief of the nation's national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in homicides that have been recorded over these past months is extremely significant,” Claudia Sheinbaum remarked, noting that the previous month the least amount of murders were documented for any single November in the last 10 years.

Historical Context and Government Strategy

Intense drug cartel infighting, alongside the administration's heavily military campaigns to take on the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s murder numbers rise sharply in recent years. The figure reached a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the country’s official data office.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide figure more than four times greater than that of the United States. From that point, murders have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety strategy for an seemingly more pronounced decline in homicides in the current year.

At a press conference in August, the head of state stated: “There is a strategy, we have tracking of the plan, and we have detailed monitoring municipality by municipality in certain cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to persist at it every day.”

The central elements of the President's safety strategy involve:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Improving intelligence and investigative capabilities.
• Greater coordination between government agencies.

Expert Skepticism and Data Concerns

But, public safety analysts urged caution that using murder numbers to paint a picture of peace was problematic. This is especially true considering the uptick in other criminal activities such as abductions.

“That would be excellent news if this was a decrease, but I think we can’t just look at the homicide data and say: ‘Well then, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be guardedly positive.”

As reported by the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall fell by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year compared with the identical timeframe the previous year. Yet, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in some states have surged by as much as 200%.

“Data on homicides is no longer valid for assessing the context of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who lack the ability or the desire to properly recognize and categorize corpses. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the capability to conceal violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that using month-to-month means of daily killings was similarly problematic because it might mask periods when there were especially high numbers of murders.

“Relying on the daily mean renders surges of violent crime invisible,” he concluded.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Progress

Where the government can highlight the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on arrests and seizures. Close to 40,000 people were detained between last October and this past November for high-impact crimes, according to government figures. Over 20,000 weapons were seized and 311 tonnes of drugs confiscated.

“Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s very politically profitable,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Frustration

Yet notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico remains grappling with severe bloodshed, with several states in the midst of cartel-fueled conflict. Recently there was a high-profile murder of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors killed in the last 12 months.

A short time after, many thousands of protesters demonstrated in Mexico City and across the nation to voice their outrage at corruption and cartel violence.

“The federal government shares [data] in a manner to build a narrative of security. Politically it’s highly effective, from a social perspective it’s extremely debatable,” Vargas concluded.