Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
