Starmer's Backers Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.

Serious Obstacles in the Selection Process

Multiple figures on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several insiders also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to launch a significant campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an offensive online group.